THERE are only two horses in single-figure odds for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup (3200m) — and both are overseas raiders.
The James Ferguson-trained Deauville Legend has been met with heavy support and, on TAB fixed odds, is A$5 (K11) favourite ahead of Loft at A$7 (K16).
Both bring stellar form to Australian shores and have the added benefit of being ridden by Melbourne Cup-winning jockeys Kerrin McEvoy (Deauville Legend) and James McDonald (Loft).
At his last start, Deauville Legend won the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes over 2385m, beating El Bodegon by 4.3 lengths who then came out and ran third in last week’s Cox Plate.
Melbourne Cup week experts’ Tips and analysis shows that form reads extremely well for this, however, there are two queries on the favourite: He has never raced on soft or heavy ground which he will get on Tuesday and he has never raced beyond 2615m.
While he gives every indication the 3200m will not be an issue, it’s still a query regardless.
Loft, on the other hand, has had two goes at the 3200m for two wins, including a dominant win in the Group 2 Belmont Gold Cup in June.
He is also proven on soft tracks but there are question marks on the quality of horses he has beaten and raced against.
There are three other overseas raiders — Hoo Ya Mal ($17), Without A Fight ($13) and Camorra ($26) — racing in Australia for the first time.
Hoo Ya Mal is in the care of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott while Camorra is trained by Ben and JD Hayes.
Without A Fight is trained by Simon and Ed Crisford in the UK.
Their form is inferior to Deauville Legend and Loft, hence, their position in the market but underestimate these three horses at your peril.
They haven’t come all this way to smell the Flemington roses. There were several good runs behind Durston in the Caulfield Cup, including Gold Trip, Knights Order, Duais, Montefilia and Vow And Declare.
It’s difficult to judge how good a form reference it will be for the Melbourne Cup.
Four horses I want to be with out of the Caulfield Cup are Gold Trip, Duais, Vow And Declare and Montefilia.
Gold Trip, A$17 (K39) was incredibly unlucky in the Cox Plate last week and, through that, you can draw a form reference through El Bodegon and Deauville Legend.
He will appreciate a soft track which he will get on Tuesday.
Multiple Group 1 winner Duais, A$17, (K39) was favourite for the Melbourne Cup for several months but has fallen out of favour in recent weeks given what some pundits saw as below-par runs in the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup.
However, she has been set for this race all along and she has the Cummings polish (Bart’s grandson Edward trains her).
She was excellent through the line in the Caulfield Cup, Hughie Bowman gets back aboard and the way she relaxes in her races the 3200m should be right up her alley.
She will need the track to stay in the soft range because if it becomes heavy her chances reduce.
Montefilia, A$15 (K34), after an interrupted run, was enormous in the Caulfield Cup charging home for fourth.
She, too, has been set for the Melbourne Cup all preparation and will be peaking on the day.
Vow And Declare ($17) won the Melbourne Cup three years ago and after losing his way for a couple of years, he’s now racing as well as ever.
We know he’ll get the distance and his effort in the Caulfield Cup after being three-wide the trip was exceptional.
He, like Duais, needs the track in the good or soft range to produce his best.
The Cup is shaping up as a race with eight or nine genuine winning chances which makes it extremely difficult to predict the winner. – Racenet
