THE PNG National Weather Service is currently assessing the La Nina, seasonal outlook and impacts for the country
In a statement released on Friday, Feb 05 it declared a La Nina on the 29th September 2020 and issued a seasonal forecast that wetter condition were expected over parts of the south-western parts of the Highlands and the Papuan regions during the period of November 2020 to January 2021.
The impacts of La Nina on rainfall patterns will vary across PNG affecting most parts of the country except the outer islands of Milne Bay and New Guinea Islands region including the Autonomous Region of Bougainville (AROB).
Progress of the Wet Season
The wet season or northwest monsoon became active two (2) weeks later than its normal onset in mid-December. The wet season quickly established across the country and is in its peak. The NW Monsoon peaks around this time of the year, January and February and brings in NW Monsoon Surges across the country and most of the Tropical Cyclones that occurred within PNG formed during the peak of the NW Monsoon. On the average, Papua New Guinea, receives one tropical cyclone annually and the risk of a tropical cyclone is above normal for this tropical Cyclone Season. The formation of any tropical cyclone will enhance NW monsoon surges and heavy rains causing flooding, landslides, and rising water levels in the low lying areas inland and along the coastline that could have adverse effects on the food and water security and other associated sectors including the health related issues such as disease outbreak and damage to public infrastructure.
Leading up to the weekend of 29th January 2021, Brisbane and Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers analyzed series of lows in the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea. A tropical low that developed in the Coral Sea moved southeast intensified and developed into a tropical cyclone Lucas south of Milne Bay province on Sunday 31st January 2021. The severe weather associated with this system has resulted in widespread heavy rainfall leading to floods in parts of the Milne Bay islands, Central province including NCD, the Gulf, Western and Oro provinces. Tropical cyclone Lucas is no longer a threat to PNG.
Current Situation and the Outlook for the next two weeks
We are well into the southern summer and Northwest Monsoon season is well established over the country. The wet season is in its peak and series of low-pressure systems across the Australian will continue to maintain monsoon surges across the country. No significant atmospheric waves or weather systems will pass over our region during the next two weeks. Expect cloudy days with isolated showers and areas of rain across the country.
In a statement released on Friday, Feb 05 it declared a La Nina on the 29th September 2020 and issued a seasonal forecast that wetter condition were expected over parts of the south-western parts of the Highlands and the Papuan regions during the period of November 2020 to January 2021.
The impacts of La Nina on rainfall patterns will vary across PNG affecting most parts of the country except the outer islands of Milne Bay and New Guinea Islands region including the Autonomous Region of Bougainville (AROB).
Progress of the Wet Season
The wet season or northwest monsoon became active two (2) weeks later than its normal onset in mid-December. The wet season quickly established across the country and is in its peak. The NW Monsoon peaks around this time of the year, January and February and brings in NW Monsoon Surges across the country and most of the Tropical Cyclones that occurred within PNG formed during the peak of the NW Monsoon. On the average, Papua New Guinea, receives one tropical cyclone annually and the risk of a tropical cyclone is above normal for this tropical Cyclone Season. The formation of any tropical cyclone will enhance NW monsoon surges and heavy rains causing flooding, landslides, and rising water levels in the low lying areas inland and along the coastline that could have adverse effects on the food and water security and other associated sectors including the health related issues such as disease outbreak and damage to public infrastructure.
Leading up to the weekend of 29th January 2021, Brisbane and Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers analyzed series of lows in the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea. A tropical low that developed in the Coral Sea moved southeast intensified and developed into a tropical cyclone Lucas south of Milne Bay province on Sunday 31st January 2021. The severe weather associated with this system has resulted in widespread heavy rainfall leading to floods in parts of the Milne Bay islands, Central province including NCD, the Gulf, Western and Oro provinces. Tropical cyclone Lucas is no longer a threat to PNG.
Current Situation and the Outlook for the next two weeks
We are well into the southern summer and Northwest Monsoon season is well established over the country. The wet season is in its peak and series of low-pressure systems across the Australian will continue to maintain monsoon surges across the country. No significant atmospheric waves or weather systems will pass over our region during the next two weeks. Expect cloudy days with isolated showers and areas of rain across the country.
