BSP today its September Quarter 2026 Economic Pulse, saying PNG businesses have good reason to remain cautiously positive, but warned that events in the final months of the year, including higher fuel prices and El Niño, could quickly reshape the economic path ahead.
BSP Group General Manager – Corporate & Institutional Banking, Daniel Faunt, said businesses in PNG have good reason to remain cautiously positive as they enter the final months of 2026.
“Consumers are still earning and spending, the government remains committed to supporting the economy while ensuring fiscal sustainability, and businesses continue to invest in physical capacity, which together have helped firms deliver better earnings.
Mr Faunt cautioned, however, that the final quarter calendar could quickly reshape the path ahead. “A stronger-than-expected El Niño may shift expectations for taxes, spending and business activity in PNG, while higher fuel costs provide the clearest link between geopolitics, the economy and broad market performance.
“In the medium term, we remain optimistic. There is a positive contribution to the PNG economy coming from the PNG Chiefs’ 2028 NRL entry and the K45 billion Papua LNG is progressing towards a final investment decision.
“In addition, a pipeline of other energy and mineral projects offers the prospect of another resources super cycle in PNG, which will create significant economic growth in the medium-term.
Commenting on the foreign exchange market, BSP Group General Manager Treasury and Markets Rohan George said PNG FX market turnover remained solid in the September Quarter, with mining export receipts remaining the key source of FX inflows, supported by higher production and gold and copper prices, with additional support from agricultural receipts.
“Gold prices are expected to remain under pressure in the final quarter of 2026, while copper prices continue to provide a strong base for PNG’s mineral export earnings supported by growing demand from global electrification and the continued expansion of AI-related data centre infrastructure.
“Risks to PNG’s FX inflows largely stem from further impacts of El Niño conditions. While El Niño has supported global prices for key agricultural commodities, drier domestic conditions are weighing on agricultural production and export volumes. Logistical disruptions have also contributed to timing delays in FX inflows from the mineral sector.
BSP’s September Quarter 2026 Economic and Market Pulse, which includes a detailed economic review by BSP’s chief economist, Andrew Wu, is available on BSP’s website.